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Alex Fund
Mean Reversion Engine · Stock Thesis

GoDaddy: The $84 Mispricing

Alex Fund · Mean Reversion Signal
CINEMA EDITION · TICKER GDDY
A
ALEX FUND
NYSE · GDDY · REC · 00:00
LIVE · SIGNAL
ALEX FUND · GDDY · MEAN REVERSION
ALEX FUND · NYSE
GDDY ◆ −54% YTD ◆ BUY ◆ EMS 91 ◆ DCF $191 ◆ FCF YIELD 13.3% ◆ APS 26 ◆ STARTER POSITION ◆ GDDY ◆ −54% YTD ◆ BUY ◆ EMS 91 ◆ DCF $191 ◆ FCF YIELD 13.3% ◆ APS 26 ◆ STARTER POSITION ◆
Alex Fund
Stock thesis · GoDaddy (GDDY) · 2:29 min · click to start
MEAN REVERSION SIGNAL · CINEMA EDITION
GoDaddy: The $84 Mispricing
24 scenes · Bloomberg × HBO documentary style
BREAKING · GDDY · NYSE · −54% YTD
GoDaddy · stock collapse
−54%
ALEX JUST BOUGHT
MARKET · SMB DIGITAL · GLOBAL
Customer base · global
22M
SMALL BUSINESSES · ENTIRE ONLINE PRESENCE
🏪
Storefront
☕
Café
💇
Salon
🔧
Garage
PLATFORM · 4 PILLARS · 1 STACK
One platform · everything online
🌐
Domains
🖥️
Websites
💳
Payments
✉️
Email
★ 90% RENEWAL RATE
REVENUE · TTM · +21% / 3Y
Revenue · trailing twelve months
$4.95B
+21% · 3-YEAR GROWTH
2022
$4.09B
2023
$4.42B
2024
$4.95B
FREE CASH FLOW · GROWING
Free Cash Flow · TTM
$1.58B
2021
$0.78B
2022
$1.01B
2023
$1.30B
2024
$1.58B
DIVERGENCE · PRICE vs FUNDAMENTALS
Two charts · one stock
PRICE
−54%
vs
BUSINESS
+21%
★ THE GAP ★
That gap is the trade.
ALEX EMS · MEAN REVERSION SCORE
Alex EMS Score
91
The top mean reversion signal
in the entire system.
REVERSE DCF · WHAT IS $84 ASSUMING?
The implied question
$84
=
?
What does the market actually assume?
DOOM SCENARIO · IMPLIED BY $84 PRICE
⚠ What $84 implies
−12%
ANNUAL FCF DECLINE · FOREVER
That is what eighty-four dollars implies.
REALITY CHECK · 4 YEARS · FCF UP EVERY YEAR
Free Cash Flow · 4 years
2021
$0.78B
2022
$1.01B
2023
$1.30B
2024
$1.58B
Up every single year.
SENTIMENT vs FUNDAMENTALS · OPPOSITE
Pricing in collapse · seeing growth
MARKET
↓
structural collapse
vs
REALITY
↑
cash growing
VALUATION · P/E vs SECTOR PEERS
Price / Earnings
GDDY
13.6×
trailing P/E
vs
PEERS
28×
sector median
GDDY
13.6×
Peers
28×
A 52% discount on earnings.
VALUATION · EV / REVENUE
Enterprise Value / Revenue
GDDY
2.4×
EV / Rev
vs
PEERS
6.5×
sector median
GDDY
2.4×
Peers
6.5×
VALUATION · EV / EBITDA · DISCOUNT
EV / EBITDA
GDDY
9.2×
EV / EBITDA
vs
PEERS
22×
sector median
−58% DISCOUNT
FCF YIELD · GDDY vs S&P 500
Free Cash Flow Yield
13.3%
GDDY · FCF YIELD
S&P 500
< 3%
market average
BALANCE SHEET · FORTRESS · NET DEBT 0
Net Debt / EBITDA
🏰
ZERO
NET DEBT · BALANCE SHEET FORTRESS
Zero leverage. Pure cash machine.
DCF FAIR VALUE · MONTE CARLO BASE
DCF Fair Value
$191
+128% UPSIDE
MONTE CARLO · 1000 RUNS · BOOTSTRAP
Monte Carlo simulation · 1,000 runs
$84 $191
★ 99.9% UNDERVALUED ★
BEAR CASE · 10th PERCENTILE · STILL UP
Even the bear case
$135
+62% upside · even in the bear case
SINGLE COUNTER-SIGNAL · APS MOMENTUM
⚠ One signal against
26
APS: 26 ⚠️
Momentum not yet confirmed.
ALEX FUND · STARTER POSITION OPENED
Alex's response
⏱ STARTER POSITION
Waiting for momentum
to follow fundamentals.
NEXT CATALYST · EARNINGS · JULY 2026
Next catalyst
📅
JUL 2026
EARNINGS · KEY READOUTS
📈 Revenue trajectory key
💵 Margin guidance key
THESIS · ONE-LINE SUMMARY
The thesis
Market pricing in permanent decline
for a growing, debt-free cash machine.
ALEX FUND · LIVE SIGNALS · alexfund.fund
See it live
alexfund.fund
→ SEE LIVE SIGNALS
Alex Fund · Mean Reversion Engine
A
Alex Fund
Mean reversion · Multi-layer signal engine
Every position, every signal, every score —
live at alexfund.fund.
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GDDY · BUY · EMS 91 · DCF $191 · +128% UPSIDE · FCF YIELD 13.3% · NET DEBT 0 · STARTER POSITION ◆ GDDY · BUY · EMS 91 · DCF $191 · +128% UPSIDE · FCF YIELD 13.3% · NET DEBT 0 · STARTER POSITION ◆ GDDY · BUY · EMS 91 · DCF $191 · +128% UPSIDE · FCF YIELD 13.3% · NET DEBT 0 · STARTER POSITION
ALEX FUND · MEAN REVERSION SIGNAL · 2026
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